Why is hydrogen no longer the fuel of the future?

The development paths of hydrogen energy vehicles and electric vehicles in Malaysia will be differentiated and complementary rather than a simple substitution relationship. Currently, a relatively mature consumer market for electric vehicles has been established, with sales of pure electric models exceeding 12,000 units in the first seven months of 2024. Chinese brands such as BYD and Great Wall have secured significant market shares through localized production, while the government is concurrently advancing the construction of charging infrastructure, including the accelerated deployment of 480kW ultra-fast charging stations. Meanwhile, hydrogen energy technology has been designated as a national priority for clean energy development, particularly in the heavy transport sector. Sarawak has initiated a hydrogen-powered Autonomous Rail Rapid Transit (ART) project, leveraging its advantages of rapid refueling and extended range that are better suited for commercial vehicle applications. From a policy perspective, the 13th Malaysia Plan explicitly supports hydrogen energy applications in sectors where electrification is challenging, though this requires complementary tariff incentives and supportive measures. In the short term, electric vehicles will continue to dominate the passenger vehicle market by leveraging existing industrial chain advantages, while hydrogen-powered vehicles may achieve breakthroughs in specific sectors like public transport and logistics. Both technologies will develop in parallel based on their respective optimal use cases. Technologically, localized production by battery manufacturers such as EVE Energy will enhance the competitiveness of electrification, while CRRC Zhuzhou's collaboration on hydrogen-powered ART technology will facilitate the commercialization of hydrogen energy. Ultimately, the market landscape will be determined by the pace of infrastructure development and the optimization of total cost of ownership.

In Malaysia, the alternatives to electric vehicles (EVs) mainly include plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), hydrogen-powered vehicles, and optimized public transport systems. PHEVs combine electric drive with traditional internal combustion engines, making them suitable for long-distance driving without relying on dense charging infrastructure. Brands like BMW and Mercedes-Benz have launched multiple models. Hydrogen-powered vehicles have been designated by the government as a priority development area, particularly for commercial vehicles. Their advantages of rapid refueling and extended range address the limitations of pure electric vehicles in heavy-duty transport, with Sarawak initiating a hydrogen-powered bus pilot project. Furthermore, enhancing public transport efficiency is a crucial strategy. The government is partnering with Chinese companies to develop green transit networks, including light rail and hydrogen-powered autonomous rail rapid transit (ART) systems, to reduce private vehicle dependency. Currently, EV charging costs are comparable to conventional fuel vehicles, but the government is driving market adoption through incentives like tax exemptions and charging station deployment, targeting a 15% EV market share by 2030. Budget-conscious consumers still predominantly opt for affordable used cars, while domestic manufacturers such as Proton and Perodua are also developing electric models to diversify market offerings.

The potential of hydrogen energy as a future fuel is constrained by multiple practical factors, mainly reflected in bottlenecks across three aspects: technology, cost, and infrastructure. In terms of hydrogen production, the cost of green hydrogen (produced via water electrolysis) remains as high as 22 to 23 Malaysian ringgit per kilogram, and its economic viability depends on access to specific regions with low electricity prices. Meanwhile, the disproportionately high share of traditional coal-based hydrogen production contradicts environmental protection objectives. For storage and transportation, high-pressure gaseous hydrogen storage dominates, but long-distance transport costs account for over 40% of the final hydrogen price. Liquid hydrogen storage, on the other hand, incurs significantly higher costs due to the requirement for cryogenic temperatures of -253°C. Regarding infrastructure, constructing a single hydrogen refueling station costs approximately 4.8 million Malaysian ringgit (converted at current exchange rates), substantially higher than installing charging stations. Additionally, existing hydrogen stations suffer from low utilization rates, averaging only 53 vehicles served annually per station—far below the 200-vehicle threshold needed for profitability. Technologically, fuel cell systems have yet to achieve a lifespan exceeding 10,000 hours, platinum catalysts still constitute 20% of costs, and performance deteriorates markedly in low-temperature conditions. From a market perspective, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are priced around 350,000 Malaysian ringgit, commanding a 50% premium over comparable electric vehicles, while refueling costs triple those of charging. Although hydrogen energy demonstrates range advantages for commercial vehicles like heavy trucks, passenger vehicle adoption remains hindered by limited consumer awareness and safety concerns. While current policy incentives are driving technological cost reductions, challenges in supply chain coordination and the maturity gap with battery-electric vehicles render hydrogen energy unlikely to emerge as a mainstream solution in the near term.

The development direction of future automobiles will show a diversified trend, but the electrification technology route will become the mainstream choice. According to predictions by authoritative institutions, global sales of new energy vehicles will exceed 20 million in 2026, with plug-in hybrid models accounting for about 50%, pure electric models 40%, and the remaining 10% being other technical routes. This market structure indicates that although pure electric models are expected to become the primary sales driver in the long term (e.g., after 2035), plug-in hybrid technology will still maintain significant importance in the medium term due to its balance of fuel economy and range convenience. Regarding technological breakthroughs, all-solid-state batteries are expected to enter small-scale vehicle installation in 2026-2027, which will significantly enhance the range of pure electric models, while the substantial cost reduction in intelligent driving hardware (such as high-speed NOA systems dropping to 3,000-5,000 Malaysian Ringgit) will accelerate the adoption of assisted driving functions. Notably, the automotive industry is evolving from a mere transportation tool to a key platform for commercializing cutting-edge technologies. Innovations like in-vehicle computing power and artificial intelligence will achieve large-scale application through new energy vehicles. This technological convergence means future automotive products will simultaneously feature electrification, intelligence, and connectivity, though specific technical route choices will still vary according to segmented market demands.

The safety of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is verified through multiple technical safeguards and rigorous testing. Their high-pressure hydrogen storage tanks are made of carbon fiber and glass fiber composite materials, capable of withstanding pressures exceeding 82.7 MPa, and have passed extreme tests such as drop, impact, and fire resistance. The body structure is designed to be robust and performs excellently in crash tests; for example, Hyundai's FCV has received the highest safety rating from IIHS. The hydrogen storage system is equipped with thermal fuses and pressure relief devices, which automatically release pressure when the temperature exceeds 110°C or abnormal pressure is detected. The hydrogen leak detection system can respond within 1 second and shut off the valves. In practical applications, hydrogen disperses rapidly due to its low density, making it difficult to reach explosive concentrations in open environments, and no accidents caused by hydrogen leaks have occurred globally since its commercialization in 2015. Compared with traditional fuel vehicles, hydrogen fuel produces only water after combustion, offering superior environmental benefits. It should be noted that the construction of hydrogen refueling stations and hydrogen transportation must comply with specific safety regulations. Overall, however, the safety standards for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles cover the entire lifecycle from production to operation, and their technical maturity and reliability are well-established.