The report shows that China's global market share of automobiles will surpass Japan's in 2025.

【PCauto】Joint analysis by Nikkei Asia and S&P Global Mobility shows that Chinese car brands are rapidly developing in the global market and are likely to surpass the long-dominant Japanese brands in global market share for the first time in 2025.

Let’s first sort out the data on China's car exports over the past three years:

• In 2023, China exported 4.911 million vehicles, becoming the world's largest exporter for the first time;
• In 2024, China exported 5.859 million vehicles, a year-on-year growth of 19.3%;
• In the first half of 2025, China exported 3.083 million vehicles, a year-on-year growth of 10.4%.

In 2023, the market share of new energy vehicles in China surpassed 30%. With policy support and technological advancements, it is very likely that the market share will increase to 50% by 2025. Leveraging a strong market environment, Chinese brands are accelerating the global expansion of new energy vehicles with competitive pricing and strong product capabilities.

Southeast Asia Becomes the Key Battleground for Chinese and Japanese Automakers

Southeast Asia has now become a core competitive region for Chinese and Japanese automakers. Markets in the Philippines and Indonesia are gaining more and more momentum, while Singapore and Vietnam have steadily become key focus areas for both automakers due to their unique market characteristics and policy orientations.

From brand competition in high-end models to market share driven by new energy policies, although Southeast Asian countries vary in market size and competition priorities, they have all been included in the strategic map of Chinese and Japanese automakers in the region, collectively forming the core battleground of competition. Among them, Thailand and Malaysia are the two important markets in this competition.

In Thailand, Japanese cars previously occupied more than 90% of the market share, almost a monopoly. However, according to the Federation of Thai Industries (F.T.I), by early 2024, the market share of Japanese cars had dropped to about 80%, while Chinese brands, leveraging several popular electric vehicle models, increased their share by 10%.

In the first half of 2025, Chinese new energy vehicles accounted for over 70% of the market share in Thailand. Brands like BYD, SAIC MG, and Great Wall have all entered the top ten in car sales in Thailand. Chinese automakers are also planning to establish local factories in Thailand, a move that not only reduces costs but also avoids trade risks.

In Malaysia, Chinese car companies mainly focus on models priced between RM 65,000 and RM 98,000, targeting users who value cost-effectiveness and intelligent technology.

Malaysia has also extended the tax exemption policy for imported and locally assembled electric vehicles until the end of 2025, allows tax deductions for individuals installing home charging stations, and will significantly reduce electric vehicle road taxes starting in 2026. These policies support the development of Chinese brands.

Therefore, S&P Global Mobility predicts that the market share of Chinese brands in Southeast Asia will increase rapidly in the coming years.

The market share of Japanese cars in Southeast Asia is declining

Currently, young consumers make up a high proportion of the Southeast Asian market, with nearly 60% of the population under the age of 30. Young people have particularly strong demands for intelligent connectivity and electrification features, where Japanese cars lag behind.

This is particularly evident in the Thai market. Xpeng Motors has introduced a right-hand drive version of the X9 model, equipped with an intelligent cockpit system that supports Thai-language interactions, integrates commonly used local travel and lifestyle service applications, and features an 800V high-voltage fast-charging platform, meeting the local demand for convenient and intelligent travel.

In contrast, Japanese models of the same class, such as the Toyota Alphard, still rely mainly on fuel engines and only feature a basic LCD screen on the center console. They lack advanced driving assistance functions and cannot achieve in-depth intelligent connectivity. Even though features such as wireless charging were later added, they were criticized by consumers for their poor practicality.

Another point is that Chinese car companies can produce cars with richer configurations at more affordable prices.

Taking the Malaysian market price range of RM 65,000 to RM 98,000 as an example, BYD offers customized models within this price range that are equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries, intelligent vehicle systems, and practical features like automatic parking.

On the other hand, Japanese models of the same class, such as the Honda Fit, only utilize traditional fuel engines and have basic configurations like manual air conditioning and fabric seats, with almost no intelligent features.

More importantly, BYD leverages its mature supply chain advantages to ensure high configurations while keeping the terminal price at around RM 95,000, far lower than the cost of configuration upgrades for Japanese vehicles of the same class. Its cost-effectiveness advantage is extremely prominent.

Moreover, the automotive industry policies in many Southeast Asian countries are transitioning toward electrification. Thailand has clearly set the goal of achieving a 30% share of new energy vehicle production by 2030, vigorously promoting the development of new energy vehicles through subsidies, tax reductions, and other policies. Malaysia has also introduced several incentives for the purchase and use of electric vehicles.

The market share of Chinese carmakers in other global regions is also growing

In Europe, the EU has imposed an anti-subsidy tax on Chinese exported electric vehicles of up to 35.3%, in addition to the original 10% base tariff, resulting in a maximum tariff rate of 45.3%. This was once thought to severely impact the overseas expansion of Chinese electric vehicles.

However, according to Dataforce statistics, from January to October 2025, Chinese carmakers' sales in Europe increased by 93% year-on-year, reaching 621,900 units, with full-year sales projected to exceed 700,000 units. Of these, the market share in October alone doubled year-on-year, rising to approximately 6.8%, compared to just 3.4% during the same period in 2024.

Earlier, in the first quarter of 2025, the registration volume of Chinese-branded vehicles in Europe hit a record high of 150,000 units, up 78% year-on-year, with market share rising to 4.5%.

Among them, SAIC MG Motor became the Chinese brand with the highest sales in the European market, with 23,896 units sold, a year-on-year increase of 35%, ranking 17th in total sales, surpassing Fiat and Nissan.

BYD Auto sales also increased by 208% year-on-year, ranking 20th with 17,514 units, surpassing Volkswagen Syad and BMW MINI brands.

It is worth mentioning that, as plug-in hybrid models were not affected by the countervailing duties, Chinese car companies have focused on introducing plug-in hybrid models. In the first quarter of 2025, plug-in hybrid model sales in the European market increased by 368% year-on-year; in August, the market share of plug-in hybrid vehicles rose from 4% in the same period in 2024 to 25%, and from January to October, sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles increased by 673% year-on-year, accounting for as much as 25% of the market.

In order to maintain long-term growth in Europe, Chinese car companies are accelerating their strategic layout in the region, transitioning from pure product exports to directly engaging in local production.

• BYD's Hungary plant will start production in 2026, with a capacity to cover the Central and Eastern European as well as Western European markets.
• Chery's first European vehicle production base, jointly established with Spain's EV Motors, has already commenced production with a target annual production capacity of 150,000 units by 2029; Leapmotor plans to achieve rapid production using Stellantis' factory in Spain.

In addition, the African market has become a key new growth point for Chinese car exports due to high demand for cost-effective vehicles.

Chinese automakers have achieved rapid sales and market share growth with products highly adapted to local demand and strategic overseas expansion.

In terms of performance in specific regional markets, South Africa, as the largest automotive market in Africa, has seen a steady increase in the market share of Chinese car brands.

According to data from JATO Dynamics, Chinese car manufacturers sold nearly 30,000 fuel vehicles in South Africa during the first half of 2025, with their market share rising from 10% in the same period in 2024 to approximately 16%.

In contrast, traditional Japanese car brands like Toyota saw a market share decline of nearly 15% during the same period, making it the traditional car brand with the most significant sales drop in the local market.

With successive breakthroughs in various regional markets worldwide, Chinese car manufacturers are constantly increasing their global sales and market share.

According to data compiled by "Nikkei Asia" based on data from the first 11 months of 2025, the global sales of Chinese car manufacturers are expected to reach approximately 27 million units in 2025, a 17% year-on-year increase. Meanwhile, Japanese car manufacturers' overall sales are expected to remain flat compared to the previous year, at around 25 million units. This indicates that Chinese car manufacturers are highly likely to surpass Japan in global car sales.